A recently released report from the NRSC (Natural Resources Conservation Science) stated that Idaho’s snowpack peaked nearly three weeks early on March 17 and was one of the lowest on record since they began snowpack measurements in the 1930s, according to Erin Whorton, Water Supply Specialist for NRCS Idaho. “Every Idahoan will feel the impacts of this low snow year. With the snowpack rapidly melting at even the highest elevations, streamflow will likely peak earlier and at much lower levels than normal. Changes in timing and amount of runoff pose significant water supply challenges for agricultural producers, the outdoor recreation, and energy sectors.  With very little snow left in the mountains to sustain streamflow into the dry summer months, our rivers could reach record low flow conditions.”

Given the historically low snowpack conditions, NRCS encourages water users to consider the ‘drier scenario’, this year, in addition to the mid-range forecast to reduce their risk. 

Whorton added, “the Western U.S. is experiencing an unprecedented snow drought and with the rapid melt off, the opportunity for wildfires to start is longer. Even if the fire season isn’t bad in Idaho, it’s likely we’ll see impacts from smoke from neighboring states.” 

Current snowpack and precipitation conditions for each basin can be accessed via https://nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap

The issues of drought and wildfire are perennial concerns for southeast Idaho, for economic reasons among many others.  Wildfire affects weather patterns which affect agriculture directly and indirectly. Tourism and recreation are also heavily impacted by drought and fire.  Resource needs for financial, material, and economic emergency responses also escalate during those conditions.

The 2025 wildfire season in southeastern Idaho was busy (though less severe than the record-setting 2024 season).  This year has the potential to be much more extreme. 

Last year, Fire activity began early and peaked between July and September, with lightning as the primary ignition source. As a result of the reduced moisture content over the winter, the fire window is likely to creep earlier into the summer.

Several fires in central Idaho wilderness areas, including the Big Bear and Rush fires, grew to thousands of acres and led to evacuations, closures, and smoke impacts across southeastern Idaho communities in 2025. Rugged terrain and clustered lightning strikes challenged firefighting efforts and stretched resources at times. 

Overall, the 2025 season saw persistent wildfire risk driven by fuel buildup and climate conditions, even in a comparatively moderate year.

The 2026 wildfire season in southeastern Idaho is forecast to be potentially severe, driven by a combination of low snowpack, early heat, and ongoing drought conditions. Much of the Mountain West, including southern Idaho, entered the year with a significant “snow drought,” with some areas reporting snowpack as low as about 20% of normal, which can lead to earlier drying of vegetation and increased susceptibility to ignition. Warmer-than-normal spring temperatures and limited precipitation are expected to accelerate this further, drying fuels and potentially lengthening the fire season. 

National outlooks indicate generally normal fire potential through late spring, followed by a likely increase into summer as conditions become hotter and drier. Experts from a variety of agencies also warn that widespread drought and early-season heat across the western U.S. could lead to an earlier start and heightened fire activity overall. 2026 is expected to bring elevated wildfire risk, especially if dry, warm conditions persist into summer.  If fire conditions equal or exceed those of 2024, significant resources are likely to be required to combat fire throughout the state and region.

As another problem, if the 2026 wildfire outlook for southeastern Idaho plays out as forecast—early snowmelt, low snowpack, warmer-than-normal spring temperatures, and an earlier, longer fire season—the ag sector will almost certainly face a mix of water stress, growing-season pressure, and smoke-related impacts.

The biggest concern would be water availability for irrigation, since Idaho ag depends heavily on snowpack-fed river systems. Low snowpack typically reduces late-summer streamflows in basins like the Snake River and Bear River systems, which can lead to earlier irrigation restrictions, reduced water allocations, or tighter reservoir management. This can directly affect yields for key crops such as hay, alfalfa, barley, potatoes, and sugar beets, especially in southeastern Idaho where irrigation is essential.

Hotter, drier conditions will also increase crop stress and soil moisture loss, raising irrigation demand just as water supplies become more limited. Livestock producers could face reduced forage quality and pasture availability, increasing feed costs.

Wildfire smoke could intermittently reduce sunlight and air quality, potentially slowing crop growth and affecting worker safety during harvest periods. Additionally, increased wildfire activity raises risks to rangelands, fencing, and rural infrastructure, adding recovery and insurance costs.

Overall, the forecast conditions suggest higher production risk, increased water competition, and greater variability in yields, even if total acreage planted remains stable.

There is little chance that late spring precipitation will provide enough of a bulwark against the small snowpack.  Even if late rains become abundant, the streamflow is likely to be very low by the end of summer in any case.  

It’s not something that anyone wants to hear, but concern about the weather year and moisture conditions have certainly been rumbling through producers ever since mid-winter.

On the municipal side of the equation, water restrictions will most likely be in effect by necessity as the overall availability of water resources becomes scarcer.